Here's the math and it's pretty simple: Ted Musgrave wins his first NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series championship with a 10th-place finish regardless of what rival Dennis Setzer does in Friday's Ford 200 at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Those are better odds than Musgrave faced the last two seasons when neither he nor Setzer was able to hoist the hardware. He came closest in 2003, believing he'd won the title, before a late-race restart penalty dropped Musgrave to third behind Travis Kvapil and Setzer.
Musgrave was second in 2001, his first season as a fulltime series driver and third the following three seasons. Should he win the title, Musgrave - at 49 years 10 months - will be the series' oldest champion. Bobby Hamilton was 47 years five months of age a year ago.
Setzer, meanwhile, will have to join Kvapil and Jack Sprague (1999) as champions who came from behind in the deciding race. Should that occur, Setzer's 192 starts would be the most required to win a title. Mike Bliss wrapped up the 2002 championship in his 144th appearance.
The 58 points by which Musgrave leads Setzer is fifth closest in the history of a series that has seen the title decided in the final race on 10 of 11 occasions. Biffle, in 2000, is the only champion to get a "free ride" in the season finale.
Only one spot in the top 10 is clinched. Hornaday can move up to third but has nailed down at least a fourth-place finish. Six drivers - Musgrave, Setzer, Todd Bodine, Hornaday, Mike Skinner and Hamilton - are assured of a top 10 ranking.
Tenth - the last position earning an on-stage position at next month's Champion's Banquet in Orlando - definitely is at issue. Jimmy Spencer enters 10th but is a single point ahead of Raybestos Rookie of the Year leader Todd Kluever. Six drivers are within 94 points of 10th.
Should Musgrave win the championship, it would complete the circle for Ultra Motorsports owner Jimmy Smith, one of four off-road owners who brought the concept of the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series to NASCAR in 1994.
Smith has fielded at least one entry in all 266 races, the only owner to boast a perfect record.
Ultra drivers have ranked among the top five in six of 10 seasons.
Musgrave has been named to the All-America Racing Team (Touring Series) second team of drivers as voted by members of the American Auto Racing Writers and Broadcasters. Setzer received honorable mention accolades.
Sprague who is currently eighth, hopes to keep his perfect, Top-10 championship finish streak alive. The series' only three-time champion has ranked among the elite in all eight seasons on tour.
Germain Motor Company crew chief Mike Hillman Jr. has clinched International Truck Crew Chief Award for 2005 while Hornaday clinched the Wix Filters Lap Leader Award at Phoenix. Toyota Racing Development, engine builder for the No. 5 Toyota Tundra Toyota of Mike Skinner or Joey Arrington, builder of the powerplant in Musgrave's Dodge will win the Clevite Engine Parts title. Three drivers - Bodine, Setzer and Sprague - are tied atop Featherlite Most Improved Driver standings, an award based upon positions gained from race to race.
Kluever will become Roush Racing's fourth Raybestos Rookie of the Year at Homestead.
The Ford 200 will have a high-profile visitor in Mark Martin, a two-time series starter who won in his last outing at North Wilkesboro, N.C. in September 1996. Martin is prepping for a part-time schedule in 2006 and become a fulltime competitor the following season.
"This is really where my heart's been throughout the summer. Through the musical chairs of the Cup Series, it sort of put me in the position of postponing a fulltime schedule until '07 but I'm still committed to running Homestead and six or seven races next year got this team refined for '07," said Martin, who'll drive a Ford as teammate to Kluever and Ricky Craven.
NASCAR Busch Series veteran S-T Motorsports will make its truck debut at Homestead with a Ford to be driven by Bobby East.